War, tariffs and China: What the US midterms mean for the Asia-Pacific

Xi urges diplomacy on Iran as Oman’s sultan makes historic visit to China Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Across the Asia-Pacific region, governments and businesses reeling from the energy shock of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran are watching Tuesday’s US midterm elections closely. If a Democrat-controlled Congress passes legislation restricting military operations or cutting funding for them, Trump can veto it. On trade and tariffs, too, analysts see little room for Congress to rein in Trump. After the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February, the Trump administration turned to other tools . In Asia, the list includes China, Japan, South Korea and seven Southeast Asian nations – Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. “In some ways, the new Congress is not going to matter to the Asia Pacific because it’s not going to affect trade policy,” Okun said. “Congress cannot change that … Tariffs don’t change. A Democratic-controlled Congress, he said, could also push for carve-outs and exceptions that would give the region’s exporters “a modicum of relief”. But any deeper shift in US trade policy, he added, will have to wait for the 2028 presidential election. Businesses will also be watching whether a major Republican loss leads to “greater GOP willingness in Congress to stand up to Trump, along with Democrats, on issues important to companies in Asia,” Kurlantzick said, including tariffs, trade policy, arms sales and “overall economic unpredictability”. One area where analysts do expect some change is US policy on Chinese technology. The new Congress, whichever party controls it, will pass tougher restrictions on China, said Okun at APAC Advisors.